Economically, the corona crisis hit emerging countries much harder than most industrialized countries. For this reason, some of them have the best conditions for high growth rates in 2021.
Many emerging countries are only slowly recovering from the Corona crisis. Economically, the pandemic has often damaged them more, despite the often lower numbers. The main reason for this is that they lost the export and sales markets abroad, their raw materials were less in demand, tourists stayed away and investors withdrew capital in order to invest it in supposedly safer countries and currencies during the crisis.
But all of that is set to change in 2021. If the pandemic eases, tourists, markets and investors will gradually return, but not at the same speed in every country.
The Bloomberg news agency has therefore examined which emerging markets have the best conditions for a quick recovery. Criteria are the infection situation in one's own country, the expected economic growth, the planned budget deficit, the planned investments in infrastructure and currency reserves, for example.
Thailand's tourism is set to revive in 2021
At the top of the ranking is Thailand. The Southeast Asian country is among those who have so far best managed the pandemic. Of the 66.5 million inhabitants, only 7,379 fell ill so far, plus only 64 official deaths. These are top international values. That is why Thailand has the best value after Taiwan in the lockdown index of the major bank (ELI) Goldman Sachs. It tries to estimate the decline in a country's gross domestic product with data on official economic restrictions and actual mobility of the population and was thus often obvious this year the truth.
The low number of infections should make itself felt in investments in 2021. The rating agency Fitch suspects, for example, that Thailand could become an attractive production location, since industry can be resumed here more quickly than elsewhere. In addition, during the crisis, the government both expanded the medical industry and supported the tourism industry. The latter could slowly start up again this year and would therefore be an important driver for the economy.
Southeast Asia dominates the ranking, Russia in second place
Southeast Asia achieved even more top positions in the Bloomberg ranking. Taiwan, a role model for its corona strategy and front runner in the lockdown index, lands in third place. This year, the island has the highest trade surplus in the world, ahead of China. One place behind is Malaysia, which scores especially with its expected GDP growth of 6.8% this year. With South Korea in shared third place, yet another Asian country lands in the top 5. The equally relaxed pandemic situation - third-best value in the lockdown index -, the second-best current account this year and a comparatively low budget deficit, which for 3.9% is expected in 2021.
Russia is the only non-Asian country to come in second. The central bank still has huge currency reserves here in order to be able to ward off external shocks such as a new corona wave. In addition, thanks to its raw material deposits, Russia is likely to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of an upturn in the entire global economy.
The best EU country is Hungary in 6th place. With a forecast of 4.5%, economic growth is likely to be one of the highest in the EU in 2021, and the central bank also has high reserves to intervene on the currency market.
At the bottom of the ranking are Brazil and China. While the Brazilian government is heading for a debt crisis, experts see the good economic prospects for China already being priced into higher exchange rates. The Shanghai Composite Index grew by 10.8% in 2020, more than twice as fast as the Dax, for example - and was thus one of the best in the world.
That is the complete ranking:
3. South Korea and Taiwan
7. Chile, South Africa and Turkey
12. Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico and Poland