Discount Retail Chains, which dominate the Polish FMCG market, will continue to dynamically increase their holdings. Michał Maksymiec, director of cooperation with retail chains of the GfK Polonia Household Panel, forecasts that in 2025 there will be as many as 5,300 discount stores in Poland, while in 2020 there were "only" 4,425.
Biedronka and Lidl are leaders in the grocery discount retail trade in Poland. The Netto chain also intends to join the group of leading players, as it has started absorbing approx. 300 branches taken over from Tesco. The fourth discounter, Aldi, is also accelerating its expansion after years of very slow development and has no intention of withdrawing from the Polish market.
This group is joined by new players trying their hand at the hard discount channel. These are chains such as Polish Vollmart, Russian MERE or French (developed by Carrefour) Supeco. These three chains do not have a total of even 20 stores in Poland, but who knows if they will not be able to cover the significant niche that appeared on the market due to the "supermarketisation" of larger discount retail chains.
In 2000, we had only about 1,000 grocery discount retail stores in Poland. Since then, the format has been dynamically developing. In this respect, Biedronka was the leader, which at the peak was able to launch up to several hundred stores a year, and only around 2015 it slowed down the pace of openings to 100-150 new stores on an annual basis. This is why we did not exceed the limit of 4,000 discounters in Poland only in 2018.
The forecast of 5,300 discount retail stores in 2025 was presented on Wednesday during the Retail & FMCG Congress 2021 by Michał Maksymiec, Retail Vertical Clients Director at GfK Polonia. As the expert noted, it is the number of discounters in our country, which is increasing year by year, to a large extent contributing to the increase in the value share of private labels in the entire shopping basket of Poles.
GfK data shows that in 2011 private label was responsible only for 14.5 percent. FMCG sales in Poland. Four years later, it was already 17.4%, and in 2019 as much as 18.4%. Also, the pandemic did not turn out to be an obstacle for private labels. The value share increased in 2020 to 19.3%. GfK forecasts assume that in 2022 the private label share in the shopping cart will amount to 21.2%, and therefore will increase by PLN 5.9 billion (US$1.5 billion).