Spain: Aldi enters Christmas leading the gain in share in a market that is losing volume
The Spanish FMCG market arrives at the Christmas campaign with weak growth and showing signs of cooling. In the year to 1 November, sales in volume have grown by 0.7% compared to the same period in 2025, while the average price has grown by 1.9%. However, in the last four weeks analysed, demand has weakened, with a decline in volume of 0.2%, while inflation has increased by 2.1%.
Fresh products have registered the highest price increase, 2.8%, and have sustained a volume growth of 0.9% in the year to date, while in packaged products, on the other hand, the price has risen by 0.6% and the volume has grown by 0.5%.
By type of brand, the private label (MDD) has increased the price by 0.4% with an increase in demand of 0.9%, while the manufacturer's brand (MDF) has become more expensive by 1.0% and volume has barely increased by 0.1%.
In recent weeks, on the other hand, fresh products have increased their average price by 3.0% and sales in volume have grown by 0.4%, while packaged products have become more expensive by 0.5% and have fallen by 0.6% in volume. With regard to brands, MDD has fallen by 1.1% and demand has rebounded by 0.4%, in contrast to the evolution of MDF: price increases of 2.4% and volume falls of 1.9%.
In this context, the distribution of spending between chains continues to change. In the year to date, Aldi is the chain that has gained the most share in value, with about half a percentage point. It is followed by Mercadona, Dia and Consum, which between the four have a share of 1.1 pp in value and have increased their share in volume. Algori also highlights the good year of regional chains such as El Jamón, Family Cash and Bon Preu.
MDD gains 1.1 pp in three years
Analysing the evolution of MDD and MDF prices since 2023, the consumer panel shows that the buyer reacts almost immediately: if the price is raised, volume is lost that same week, both in MDD and MDF. In fact, both have reached the same ceiling, with increases of close to 8%, although at different times, as Algori's Head of Insights, Cugat Bonfill, has highlighted.
Algori explains that the difference appears in the short term: the MDF passes on cost increases, while the MDD, in the last four or five weeks, contains and even lowers prices.
Thus, since 2023, the own brand has gained 1.1 pp in share in three years, going from 60.6% to 61.7%. But the company attributes this progress to the change in the retail mix: more is purchased in establishments with a greater offer of private label. By crossing 84 categories and 25 distributors with weekly data, in 45% of the combinations the distribution brand loses share against the manufacturer's brand, in 41% it gains it and in 14% it remains stable.
Forecasts
Finally, Algori has lowered its forecast for the end of 2026 by one tenth, to 0.6% volume growth in FMCG compared to the 0.7% it announced in June. For 2027, it forecasts an increase of 0.8%, below population growth. The company recalled that in the last four weeks the volume has been negative for the first time this year.
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